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Additional resources for Advances in Risk Management of Government Debt
This requires projecting the flows of revenues and expenditures – including those for servicing debt – as well as exchange rate changes (given the currency denomination of the debt). Projections of the debt dynamics thus depend, in turn, on macroeconomic and financial market developments, which are intrinsically uncertain and highly variable. , both assets and liabilities), should be included in the risk analysis so as to assess the overall risk exposure. This makes it possible in principle to limit the risk by matching the risk characteristics of respectively assets and liabilities.
In simulations over a relative short horizon the focus may be on estimation of the cost and risk of the actual portfolio. In simulations over a long horizon, say 30 years, the focus may be on the examination of the long-term characteristics of “steady state” portfolios. The choice of simulation horizon is related to the question of the initial debt composition in the simulation. 3. ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK FOR DEBT AND RISK MANAGEMENT Implications of assumptions and complexity of simulation model It is important to consider carefully the degree of detail needed in the simulation model.
ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK FOR DEBT AND RISK MANAGEMENT Another distinction is between costs based on the actual nominal debtservice payments and cost measure where unrealised changes in the market value of the debt are taken into account. Cash-flow-based costs refer to costs based on the cash payments executed during a period. Cash-flow costs are relevant in particular when the distribution of payments is of importance. g. accrued interest and initial capital losses when issuing government securities below par).
Advances in Risk Management of Government Debt by Organisation for Economic Co-Operation a