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Cox and McCubbins’ (1993) third-generation variant uses the important role of parties in grouping and organising the preferences of legislators into coherent blocs. Even though US parties are weaker than those in Europe, Cox and McCubbins argue that they also provide a source of stability, providing a median party position which dominates when there is a majority party, though party outliers may at times vote with the opposition to produce a more median 24 K. Dowding Congressional position. Versions of this model are compatible with Krehbiel’s (1993) position.
O. (1995) ‘The balance between small and large: effects of a double majority system on voting power in the European Union’, International Studies Quarterly 39: 352–70. O. (1997) ‘Voting strength in the European Parliament: the influence of national and of partisan actors’, European Journal of Political Research 31: 351–66. J. (1995) ‘The conflict over qualified majority voting in the European Union Council of Ministers: an analysis of the UK negotiating stance using power indices’, British Journal of Political Science 25: 245–54.
To see the type of compromises reached requires a more detailed examination of each decision than can be given by some generalised model with simple assumptions about policy positions. While each agreement requires separate study, the generalised argument that the Council will always play Hawk – citing the Tsebelis-Garrett argument obtained by backwards induction – misses the repeated nature of a game which allows rational players to reach cooperative outcomes as one of the set of possible outcomes, as predicted by the ‘folk theorems’ of repeated non-cooperative games (MeyerSahling 1998).
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