Economic Foundations of Capital Market Returns (The Research by CFA and Kevin Terhaar, CFA Brian D. Singer PDF

By CFA and Kevin Terhaar, CFA Brian D. Singer

ISBN-10: 0943205409

ISBN-13: 9780943205403

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75 percent, which is similar to that experienced in recent years. Although the business cycle has not ended, Federal Reserve policy has shifted more toward price stability than during the 1970s. This policy will be implemented in a consister~tmanner going forward. This analysis can be applied on a country-by-country basis to develop secular inflation forecasts in each market. Among the nonquantitative considerations is the OThe Research Foundation of the ICFA 43 Economic Foundations of C a b i t ~Market l Returm fact that central banks globally are evolving toward and institutionalizing independence of the monetary authority and specifying price stability rather than growth objectives.

S. Annual Real Risk-Free Rate, Based on 30-bay T-BIII Rate Less Consumer Price Inflation. 1925-96 Average Figure 28. S. Annual Real Risk-Free and Eurodeposit Rates, Based on Gash Less Consumer Price ierflatioae, 1970-96 ,L Three-Month Eurodepos~t.. - ... . 7 percent between 1971 and 1995, following the pattern evident in Figure 29. 7 percent. 0 percent. 0 percent is a good indication of central tendency over the long term. Figure 29. Global Annual Risk-Free Rate, Based on Three-Month Eurodeposits Less Csmswmer Price Index, 1971-96 The inflation Premium According to the quantity theory of money, an increase in the money supply results in an increase either in prices or in real output, or a decrease in velocity.

The standard model requires that their perceptions of risk (although not necessarily their risk tolerances) and their expectatio~lsfor returns be the same. Thus, everyone has the same pricing model and distributional assumptions, producing a consistent set of outputs-that is, prices or valuations. If investors price assets in a manner consistent with the CAPM but have differing views on what constitutes their investment market, they will arrive at different conclusions about the riskiness of the assets.

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Economic Foundations of Capital Market Returns (The Research Foundation of AIMR and Blackwell Series in Finance) by CFA and Kevin Terhaar, CFA Brian D. Singer


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