By Randall W. Eberts, Christopher J. O'Leary, Stephen A. Wandner
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Therefore, profiling models estimated from UI data that are collected after the implementation of WPRS and used in WPRS models will provide biased estimates of the exhaustion probabilities if targeted workers were not required to participate in WPRS. Fortunately, data from the JSA demonstration in Florida can be used to measure the size of this contamination. This demonstration included a control group of UI claimants who passed the state screens (and were thereby deemed eligible by the state), who exceeded the threshold probability of exhaustion, but who were not assigned to a mandatory treatment group with requirements similar to those in Predicting the Exhaustion of Unemployment Compensation 47 WPRS.
This expectation is confirmed by the estimates from state profiling models. However, at least one state found that the replacement rate primarily identifies exhaustees with low potential duration because they worked less during the base period. Some states have included the potential duration of UI benefits as an explanatory variable in their profiling models. , the target population Predicting the Exhaustion of Unemployment Compensation 37 for WPRS services. Therefore, we may want to think of two different groups of variables that help to explain exhaustion: those that explain exhaustion because they indicate “dislocation” (such as job tenure) versus those that explain exhaustion for programmatic and other reasons (such as potential duration).
WPRS is a tool that facilitates both the identification of needy claimants and the allocation of services, such that those claimants most likely to exhaust their benefits receive highest priority in receiving available reemployment services. In identifying likely exhaustees, states may use either characteristic screens or statistical models. Each method identifies characteristics common to recent exhaustees and targets current claimants who share these characteristics. Although neither method can target exhaustees with complete accuracy, both screens and models have been found to be more accurate than less systematic processes, such as random selection.
Targeting Employment Services by Randall W. Eberts, Christopher J. O'Leary, Stephen A. Wandner