By Derek H. Aldcroft, Harry W. Richardson
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Extra info for The British Economy 1870–1939
2 It was also noted that new overseas issues fluctuations led those in exports by one to two years, thereby making a case 'for relating British cyclical fluctuations not only to variations in world market conditions and the domestic propensity to invest but to the varying pace of British overseas investment'. 3 There is something in this argument, especially since foreign lending led directly in many cases to the export of investment goods. But although induced exports of commodities almost certainly exceeded one-quarter of the invested capital (as estimated by Tinbergen) they were insufficient to effect the transfer of the capital.
Stillerman, TkeSourcesoflnvention (1St edn, 1958). 1 Schumpeter, Businm Cycles, p. 430. K. investments in overseas manufacturing. The data deficiencies are so great and our understanding of the process of technical change and how it influences the level of economic activity so imperfect that even if the case for an innovations theory is valid it would be very difficult to establish conclusively. But the difficulties involved in substantiating such an explanation are not sufficient grounds for attempting to dismiss it out of hand by resorting to these superficial, and in some cases a priori, objections.
The increasing internationalisation of the business cycle, the wider amplitude of fluctuations in exports and the lead of exports over other indicators when economic activity changed direction (subject to the reservations noted above) are important features determining the character of British economic fluctuations between 1870 and 1939. They do not, however, establish a case for assigning 1 S Schumpeter, Business Cycles, p. 367. A. C. Pigou, Aspects qfBritish Economic History, 1918-25 (1947). The Business Cycle 33 to exports a recurrent causal role in the cycles.
The British Economy 1870–1939 by Derek H. Aldcroft, Harry W. Richardson