By Milton Friedman, Anna Jacobson Schwartz, Anna Jacobson Schwartz, Peter L. Bernstein
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Additional info for The great contraction, 1929-1933 - with a new preface by Anna Jacobson Schwartz and a new introduction
1946, pp. 442–450. indd 14 3/18/08 3:19:42 PM THE GREAT CONTRACTION of a longer period. Money income declined by 15 per cent from 1929 to 1930, 20 per cent the next year, and 27 per cent in the next, and then by a further 5 per cent from 1932 to 1933, even though the cyclical trough is dated in March 1933. The rapid decline in prices made the declines in real income considerably smaller but, even so, real income fell by 11 per cent, 9 per cent, 18 per cent, and 3 per cent in the four successive years.
174. Also see the discussion of that episode in sect. 2, below. indd 21 3/18/08 3:19:51 PM F R I E D M A N & S C H WA R T Z respectively. In the next twelve months, all three series fell at appreciably higher rates: 27 per cent, 13 ½ per cent, and 17 per cent, respectively. All told, by October 1930, production had fallen 26 per cent, prices, 14 per cent, and personal income, 16 per cent. The trend of the money stock changed from horizontal to mildly downward. Interest rates, generally rising until October 1929, began to fall.
Indd 15 3/18/08 3:19:43 PM F R I E D M A N & S C H WA R T Z phase. In general, the magnitude of the movement in velocity varies directly with the magnitude of the corresponding movement in income and in money. For example, the sharp decline in velocity from 1929 to 1933 was roughly matched in the opposite direction by the sharp rise during World War I, which accompanied the rapid rise in the stock of money and in money income; and, in the same direction, by the sharp fall thereafter accompanying the decline in money income and in the stock of money after 1920.
The great contraction, 1929-1933 - with a new preface by Anna Jacobson Schwartz and a new introduction by Milton Friedman, Anna Jacobson Schwartz, Anna Jacobson Schwartz, Peter L. Bernstein