Get Uncertainty : a guide to dealing with uncertainty in PDF

By M. Granger Morgan, Max Henrion, Mitchell Small

ISBN-10: 0521365422

ISBN-13: 9780521365420

ISBN-10: 0521427444

ISBN-13: 9780521427449

The authors clarify the ways that uncertainty is a crucial consider the issues of chance and coverage research. This ebook outlines the resource and nature of uncertainty, discusses options for acquiring and utilizing specialist judgment, and reports quite a few easy and complicated equipment for examining uncertainty. strong computing device environments and reliable graphical options for exhibiting uncertainty are only of the extra complex themes addressed in later chapters

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Additional info for Uncertainty : a guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis

Sample text

1. Criteria for Decision Making A wide variety of decision criteria for risk management decision making have been discussed in the literature (Schulze, 1980; Goldstein, 1981; Lave, 1981; Stone, 1974; Schulze and Kneese, 1981). Not all of these discussions are consistent. 2 we summarize a set of decision criteria that we believe capture most of the major philosophical alternatives in use today. A very similar table could be constructed for most other policy making contexts. 2 utility-based criteria because they all involve decisions that are based on the valuation of outcomes.

Analyst-focused motivations 10. 11. 12. 13. To derive enjoyment and professional recognition and rewards. To use a specific problem context as a vehicle to demonstrate, test, refine, or develop new analytical techniques and tools. Because it is the analyst's job. Because it is the only thing the analyst knows how to do. that will be useful to one or several policymakers who are faced with deciding on a specific well defined set of policy issues or options. In this case the policy questions under consideration are well-specified and analysis is used simply as a tool to get some, if not all, of the insights, data, or answers that are needed to make a decision on the previously formulated problem.

Many design problems in geotechnical engineering), with the result that answers to questions about decision criteria and policy strategies are well prescribed. However, even in these situations it is a good idea to reflect a bit on the issues of decision criteria and policy strategies before getting very far into analysis. In a surprisingly large number of situations, people get into trouble by embarking on analysis without first sorting out what decision criterion and strategies will be used.

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Uncertainty : a guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis by M. Granger Morgan, Max Henrion, Mitchell Small


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